First, we skipped yesterday. Why did we skip yesterday Diicembr? Well, yesterday was boring boring boring, AND it fit right in with our model, which for reminder is that we’re in the float before the fall. Or, since everyone likes Pictures:
So, we have some due diligence to start looking at:
Super Interesting, the fed is going to try and make it illegal to shut down a commercial factory? This will be interesting to watch play out.
Chicken problems affecting India too:
Potatos and Onions affected:
Oil Has crashed, and continues to look poor:
Over extended models (like airbnb) feeling the squeeze:
Evictions bans being used to hide the mess under the rug for the time being:
and evictions are happening anyways:
Somewhere from hundreds of thousands to millions of mortgage deferments:
We got a stimulus, and as predicted, the larger companies are having an easier time getting millions of dollars than the small companies are getting thousands.
Even Basketball players got money faster than small businesses:
Meanwhile small businesses:
And Jobs? What jobs? 26+ million unemployed, over 20%+, and its not like its going back up tomorrow.
Don’t worry though, if we start having record jobs growth right away, it’ll only take up 95.23 years to re-hire 26 million people!
Remember when we started talking about states running out of money, and needing to steal it from other programs just to make an extra payment or two? Nah, just file bankruptcy, duh
So we’re pretty much on track for exactly what we thought. Meanwhile the Gov’t has promised unlimited QE spending to fix this, but…cut unlimited in half? Hey, if it sounds good in the presser at 5pm, :stonks go up:
So. Where does that put us? Well. No where exciting. The days continue exactly as previously stated, trends of 1-2% green, and 1.5% negative, although we did see about a 10% bump in volume today at 105m. We did have a super exciting night last night, if you’re on a platform with real after-hours market info (no, not Robinhood). So far tonight we’re seeing another similar movement in the post market, but we’ll see if holds up tomorrow or produces anything meaningful. We did notice a pretty solid rejection of SPY 290 today, and if I were a betting man I’d put tomorrow red too, and maybe starting a leg to re-test the 270 region.
But, because we’re firmly in our model, and our signals are lining up, we’re really in a ‘wait and hold’ pattern. That’s OK, you can make some monies here and there off smaller movements. Remember, we’re not invested one way or the other with if it should crash, we’re just watching indicators, which are still on track for some time in the next 1.5-3.5 weeks. We’re also about to really ramp into the first month we’re expecting to see more and more about rent/mortgage problems, and mortgages can tumble the markets quick if 2007 taught us anything.
edit: I forgot to add, if we do see some sort of monthly stimulus, we should expect this to fuck with our timeline quite a bit. Free moneys though!
For now, we wait. Happy hunting.
tl:dr The pins are starting to get placed on the lane markers, now we’re just waiting for the ball to arrive up the mystery chute the balls come out of. Why do bowling shoes always fit so weird?
edit edit: for you people who can’t see the real after-market stuffs.
edit edit edit: updated the overnight market picture. Fancy charts and shit.