Tea Leaves, Pork Futures, and chickens running loose. A brief update. : wallstreetbets

Tea Leaves, Pork Futures, and chickens running loose. A brief update. : wallstreetbets

Previous Post:https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/g83zcp/special_saturday_edition_what_exactly_are_tea/

First, we skipped yesterday. Why did we skip yesterday Diicembr? Well, yesterday was boring boring boring, AND it fit right in with our model, which for reminder is that we’re in the float before the fall. Or, since everyone likes Pictures:

View post on imgur.com

So, we have some due diligence to start looking at:

Agriculture:

Pork:https://www.latimes.com/food/story/2020-04-21/coronavirus-pork-pig-farmers

Chicken

https://www.deccanherald.com/state/karnataka-districts/covid-19-impact-tough-times-for-poultry-farmers-as-prices-crash-by-60-811297.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-28/trump-says-he-s-issuing-order-for-tyson-s-unique-liability?utm_content=politics&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-politics&fbclid=IwAR2VMjFDKCL0-Ya-E5QiXyKUbZsUBjR5bOKWFa1gnxRbM-xjEjJzrcCuWXE

Super Interesting, the fed is going to try and make it illegal to shut down a commercial factory? This will be interesting to watch play out.

Chicken problems affecting India too:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/18/indias-poultry-sales-decline-amid-coronavirus-rumors-linked-to-chickens.html

Potatos and Onions affected:

https://www.producebluebook.com/2020/04/17/onion-potato-struggles-see-no-end/#

Oil Has crashed, and continues to look poor:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-prices-drop-to-lowest-level-since-1986-11588066453

Housing:

Over extended models (like airbnb) feeling the squeeze:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/tech/airbnb-hosts-coronavirus/index.html

Evictions bans being used to hide the mess under the rug for the time being:

https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/emergency-bans-on-evictions-and-other-tenant-protections-related-to-coronavirus.html

and evictions are happening anyways:

https://time.com/5820634/evictions-coronavirus/

Somewhere from hundreds of thousands to millions of mortgage deferments:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2020/04/14/mortgage-deferment-relief-coronavirus-covid-19/2983675001/

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/apr/14/lenders-in-uk-grant-12m-mortgage-deferments

We got a stimulus, and as predicted, the larger companies are having an easier time getting millions of dollars than the small companies are getting thousands.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/21/large-public-companies-are-taking-small-businesses-payroll-loans.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/26/small-business-loans-public-companies-took-855-million.html

Even Basketball players got money faster than small businesses:

L.A. Lakers Received $4.6 Million From Federal Loan Program — But Returned Payment

Meanwhile small businesses:

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/27/846197794/small-business-loans-site-crashes-on-1st-day-of-reopening

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/7/21209584/paycheck-protection-program-banks-access

And Jobs? What jobs? 26+ million unemployed, over 20%+, and its not like its going back up tomorrow.

https://fortune.com/2020/04/23/us-unemployment-rate-numbers-claims-this-week-total-job-losses-april-23-2020-benefits-claims/

Don’t worry though, if we start having record jobs growth right away, it’ll only take up 95.23 years to re-hire 26 million people!

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2020/03/06/us-added-273000-jobs-in-february-will-the-record-setting-growth-continue/#4e226fc74ec0

Remember when we started talking about states running out of money, and needing to steal it from other programs just to make an extra payment or two? Nah, just file bankruptcy, duh

Read about:   Continental breakfast? Attempt at covenant/fundamental breakdown: MAR : wallstreetbets

So we’re pretty much on track for exactly what we thought. Meanwhile the Gov’t has promised unlimited QE spending to fix this, but…cut unlimited in half? Hey, if it sounds good in the presser at 5pm, :stonks go up:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/us-treasury-yields-higher-amid-covid-19-drug-reports.html

So. Where does that put us? Well. No where exciting. The days continue exactly as previously stated, trends of 1-2% green, and 1.5% negative, although we did see about a 10% bump in volume today at 105m. We did have a super exciting night last night, if you’re on a platform with real after-hours market info (no, not Robinhood). So far tonight we’re seeing another similar movement in the post market, but we’ll see if holds up tomorrow or produces anything meaningful. We did notice a pretty solid rejection of SPY 290 today, and if I were a betting man I’d put tomorrow red too, and maybe starting a leg to re-test the 270 region.

But, because we’re firmly in our model, and our signals are lining up, we’re really in a ‘wait and hold’ pattern. That’s OK, you can make some monies here and there off smaller movements. Remember, we’re not invested one way or the other with if it should crash, we’re just watching indicators, which are still on track for some time in the next 1.5-3.5 weeks. We’re also about to really ramp into the first month we’re expecting to see more and more about rent/mortgage problems, and mortgages can tumble the markets quick if 2007 taught us anything.

edit: I forgot to add, if we do see some sort of monthly stimulus, we should expect this to fuck with our timeline quite a bit. Free moneys though!

Read about:   USDA Eligibility and Income Limits

For now, we wait. Happy hunting.

tl:dr The pins are starting to get placed on the lane markers, now we’re just waiting for the ball to arrive up the mystery chute the balls come out of. Why do bowling shoes always fit so weird?

edit edit: for you people who can’t see the real after-market stuffs.
edit edit edit: updated the overnight market picture. Fancy charts and shit.

View post on imgur.com

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